Polling Exists To Make Astrology Look Good
The credibility of America's polling industry in 2022 is less than zero
Three days ago, the American polling and news aggregation site Real Clear Politics launched a “polling accountability initiative” with a new pollster ranking system.
This was a significant admission by Real Clear Politics that the polling industry is largely a farce. After all: Real Clear Politics has simply aggregated various polls into a polling average for the last twenty years. What could possibly be the problem with that model? What could go wrong with a polling average? And the answer is obvious: the vast majority of polls are so biased (in favor of Democrats) that the sheer number of these fake polls manage to discredit even polling averages.
As the old adage goes: “garbage in, garbage out.”
Real Clear Politics has admitted as much in their “polling accountability initiative” press release: “the public opinion survey industry has undergone momentous changes and faced a series of challenges in a profoundly altered political landscape.”
Here’s the key paragraph:
There have been many news stories over the last several months questioning whether polling is broken in the United States. While there are certainly challenges in the polling industry, it is not entirely accurate to suggest polling is broken. There are many quality pollsters and media outlets that are doing excellent work in a constantly changing technological and political environment. However, there are also pollsters and news organizations that are doing less-than-stellar work and, unfortunately, many of the polls from these organizations receive a disproportionate amount of attention.
I don’t know anyone who shares the rosy view of the Real Clear Politics crowd that “many quality pollsters and media outlets are doing excellent work.” Indeed, if such a statement was credible, then why the need for a “polling accountability initiative” at all? The truth is that the polling industry’s credibility is so tarnished that Politico ran an article recently on how Democrat pollsters know that nobody trusts them anymore.
There’s only a handful of credible polling firms: Rasmussen and Trafalgar immediately come to mind. The industry is riddled with frauds like Frank Luntz and Obama fanboys like Nate Silver. There are only a few industry critics like Big Data Poll’s Richard Baris who care to explain how the polls are rigged, and how public opinion is manipulated.
The field he’s talking about is the polling field. It’s not a field that’s unbelievably dishonest in favor of Republicans — it’s a field that’s unbelievably dishonest in favor of Democrats. (Here’s my full Absolute Truth interview with Richard Baris if you’re interested.) According to him, the polling industry is totally corrupt because: “98% of pollsters are left-wing.”
How about the supposedly “nonpartisan” Cook Political Report for example? Baris explains that “Cook” is just another front group for the Democrat Party.
The purpose of the American polling industry is not to publish accurate public opinion about political races — it’s to oversample Democrats and undersample Republicans in political races.
That’s why the polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points in 2016 — and Andrew Gillum leading Ron DeSantis by 14 points in 2018 — and “a blue wave” of Democrat victories that never materialized in 2020.
That’s why fourth-rate colleges conduct garbage polls just before the elections: Monmouth, Franklin & Marshall, The University of Nevada at Reno, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Siena.
The point of this garbage poll, for example, is to claim a 22 point lead for Josh Shapiro (D) against Doug Mastriano (R). What’s the point of claiming such an absurd lead?
Polls with absurd leads for Democrat candidates are meant to do one thing: suppress the Republican vote.
You might say: that’s the point of the entire polling industry in America.
There’s a vast number of important political questions in America today that never get asked by polling firms. Questions like: How many Americans think Joe Biden is a pedophile? How many people think the FBI is the greatest danger to our democracy? Do you think it’s safe to require every child in America to get an untested and experimental COVID vaccine? These questions will never be asked by our polling firms — because they are essentially paid to avoid asking them.
The American public needs accurate polling on the most pressing political matters of our day — and everybody knows that we don’t have that polling.
Somebody needs to shake things up.
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